Transmission Dynamics and Control of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome.

Lipsitch M, Cohen T, Cooper B, Robins JM, Ma S, James L, Gopalakrishna G, Chew SK, Tan CC, Samore MH, Fisman D, Murray M.

　　Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, 677 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA 02115, USA.Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a recently described illness of humans that has spread widely over the past 6 months. Using detailed epidemiologic data from Singapore and the epidemic curves from other settings, we estimated the reproductive number for SARS both in the absence of interventions and in the presence of control efforts. We estimate that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about 3 secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures. Public health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a significant impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.